Please read the README file in this repository.

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• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Ecuador
  • Brazil
  • Peru
  • Chile
  • Bolivia
  • Colombia
  • Argentina
  • Uruguay
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Paraguay

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,355$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,460.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,460.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,203$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(90.1 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,927.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,927.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,149$ on 2020-05-25

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $374,898$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,045,289.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 77.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,045,289.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,473$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(522 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,624.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 61.4)}}\) (asimptote \(40,624.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $197,592$ on 2020-05-25

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $123,979$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166,934.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(166,934.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,629$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(96.8 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,988.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 56.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,988.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $69,401$ on 2020-05-25

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,997$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(807 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $761$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(26.2 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,934$ on 2020-05-25

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,660$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(64.2 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,291.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 79.1)}}\) (asimptote \(21,291.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $261$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{952.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(952.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,752$ on 2020-05-25

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,981$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(644 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,912.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 79.7)}}\) (asimptote \(58,912.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $750$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(57 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{969.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(969.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,966$ on 2020-05-25

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,628$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(572 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $467$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(46.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{569.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(569.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,162$ on 2020-05-25

Uruguay⮸

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $787$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(227 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{740.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(740.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.52 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(21.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $136$ on 2020-05-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Uruguay recovered 57%
Paraguay recovered 13%

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $865$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(45 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,205.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 56.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,205.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 20.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $510$ on 2020-05-25